Polarization and Political Conflict in Latin America in the Aftermath of the Left Turn
In this essay in RevDem’s Cross-regional Dialogue section, edited by our Global Forum editors Hager Ali (Africa), Anubha Anushree (Asia) and Gabriel Pereira (South America), Gabriel Kessler and Gabriel Vommaro look at Latin America’s political landscape.
By Gabriel Kessler and Gabriel Vommaro
Latin America’s political landscape is marked by rising discontent and ideological divides, amplified by the post-pandemic climate. A recent research project highlights three main conflict patterns—ideological polarization, leader-driven division, and widespread dissatisfaction—across five countries. These dynamics reveal potential risks to democracies, as polarization and disenfranchisement reshape political engagement and fuel uncertainty in the region’s future.
Latin America is currently experiencing escalating discontent and social and political conflict, which has been further exacerbated by the global Covid-19 pandemic, as discussed by Benza & Kessler, 2019. The leftist forces that ushered in the ‘Left Turn’ at the dawn of the 21st century have now become the ‘establishment’ facing a new wave of challenges. The emergence of right-wing opposition presaged a significant political shift that has not occurred yet. However, political discontent has grown in Latin America and is represented by massive protests, changes in electoral behavior, negative attitudes toward democracy, and the emergence of radical right-wing actors.
How is conflict organized in different countries? What are the consequences and challenges of these conflicts for democracy in the region? To answer these and other questions, the Polarization, Democracy, and Rights in Latin America (POLDER) project, funded by the Ford Foundation, conducted comprehensive comparative research in five countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, and Mexico) between 2021 and 2023, using mixed methods. Based on our research, we argue that, after the end of the commodity boom, social conflict in Latin America can be framed under three dynamics and non-sequenced scenarios as depicted in Figure 1: ideological polarization with affective components, polarization around an emerging leader, and generalized discontent.
Figure 1. Scenarios of discontent in contemporary Latin America
Source: Authors’ own diagram
Among the countries studied, Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay are cases of ideological polarization. There is generalized discontent in Colombia and, with nuances, in Peru and Ecuador, while Mexico under Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and El Salvador under Nayib Bukele present polarization cases around a leader.
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