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This Doctoral Seminar Series is organized as part of the initiative of CEU DI to set up an Observatory on Welfare and Democracy involving scholars to investigate polarization, the rise of third-wave autocracy, and its complex relationship with social policy programs and welfare states globally. In addition to doctoral students, MA students and interested scholars are also encouraged to apply. The Seminar Series is fully online.

The 12-occasion, full-remote Seminar Series will be organized in the Winter-Spring term of 2026. Its central aim is to foster young researchers’ interest and involvement in studying democracy, autocracy and welfare. While the first, pilot Seminar Series will be organized outside of official curricula, the mid-term aim is to incorporate the course into the official curricula of one of the participating universities.
Target groups include primarily postgraduate students of political science, sociology, policy studies anthropology in Europe, the Americas and the global South. Graduate students, as well as interested scholars are also welcome to attend the lectures. In Europe, focus will be placed on including students via CIVICA network universities. The Seminar Series pays special attention to attract talented young scholars from the global South.

Rationale:

In the twenty-first century, with the rise of third wave of autocracy and polarizing populist forces, the welfare-democracy nexus has become profoundly unsettled. Studies from Western Europe and other regions signaled enduring tensions between redistribution, social control, and democratization are suggesting a more complex nexus than the dominant idea of welfare as a democratizing force (e.g. Gingich 2023; Rathgeb 2024). Meanwhile, expansive and innovative welfare developments are occurring in some of the emerging economies and hybrid political regimes (e.g. Garai 2017; Yörük 2022, 2023; Szikra and Öktem 2023). The mainstream Western welfare state paradigm assumes a positive relationship between democratic development and expansion of social rights (Marshall 1953; Esping-Andersen 1990). The seminar series revisits this assumption and opens new avenues of conceptualization of the welfare-democracy nexus, also highlighting some of the important, intersecting dimensions of gender and ethnicity. This series of lectures will provide space for established and young scholars from all over the world to meet and discuss economic and social policies under the rise of third-wave autocracies and scrutinize how autocratizers (mis)use social policies and issues around care for popularizing themselves.

Learning outcome:

By revisiting the relationship between democracy and welfare the seminar series will advance students’ theoretical understanding of how the political regime type shapes the design, distribution, and political uses of social policies, and conversely, how welfare design affects democratic or autocratic trajectories. Diverse political regime types will be contrasted and various policy instruments scrutinized, including conditional cash transfers (CCTs), workfare programs, care regimes, healthcare migration, and gender-based violence policies. The seminar builds on the active involvement of students, builds on their knowledge and experiences. The contributors will encourage early career researchers to conduct high quality research in the field of welfare and democracy in varied geopolitical settings.

Collaborators:

The pilot Seminar Series on Welfare and Democracy invites scholars who are in the forefront of studying welfare, democracy, and autocratization. Some of them have been also working on a Special Issue on the theme for the Journal of European Social Policy. Contributors include senior and junior (postdoctoral) scholars, affiliated with universities and research institutes in Europe, US, Canada, India, Latin America etc.

 

Class schedule

  1. Feb 25, Philip Rathgeb (University of Edinburgh), How the Radical Right Has Changed Capitalism and Welfare in Europe and the USA – More info

  2. March 4, Dorottya Szikra (CEU), Illiberal Welfare States in Europe and its Periphery – More info

  3. March 11, Daniel Béland et al. (McGill University), Social Policy Development in Authoritarian, Semi-Authoritarian, and Democratic Regimes: Comparing Long-Term Care Systems in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan – More info

  4. March 18, Linda J. Cook (Brown University), Immigration, Democracy and the Rise of Right Politics in Europe – More info

  5. April 1, Anirvan Chowdhury (University of Lousiville), Parties against Democracy: How Ruling Parties Subvert Inclusion to Entrench Dominance in India – More info

  6. April 8, Angelo Panaro (FAU), Political Regimes and Social Performance in the Age of Autocratization – More info

  7. April 15, Erdem Yoruk (University of Koc), The Contentious Politics of the Welfare State in the Global South – More info

  8. April 22, Candelaria Garay (Cornell University) & Emilia Simison (Queen Mary University of London), Democratic Responsiveness and Social Policy: Evidence from Latin America – More info

  9. April 29, Eva Fodor (CEU), Carefare: How Ethno-Nationalist Pronatalism Changes the Logic of Social Citizenship – More info

  10. May 6, Andrea Krizsan (CEU), Conny Roggeband (University of Amsterdam), Reconfiguring Collaborative Governance under Autocratization: Civil Society Exclusion and Policy Capture in Domestic Violence Policy – More information

  11. May 13, Alvaro Comin (University of Sao Paulo), The scramble for the public budget. Democracy, social welfare and the never-ending threat of autocracy in Brazil – POSTPONED

  12. May 20, Yamini Aiyar (Brown Univeristy), Techno-Patrimonial Welfarism: How technology enabled welfarism is shaping electoral choices, while undermining democratic accountability – More information

The seminar series is hosted by CBS Professor Lindsay Whitfield, Director of the Observatory for Just Green Transitions, and co-organized by CEU Democracy Institute and the Centre for Business and Development at CBS. The Observatory for Just Green Transitions is a collaboration between the Central European University in Budapest and Vienna, Copenhagen Business School, and a cross-continental network of institutions and scholars at the forefront of studying the political, socio-economic and geopolitical dimensions of green transitions.

The seminar series seeks to foster debate for the purpose of finding solutions that defy black and white positions. It provides a platform for discussing the nuances around how democratic politics is shaping the speed, distribution and societal acceptance of the green transition across multiple geographic scales as well as how economic strategies to compete in new green technologies can and is changing global capitalism. The seminar series emphasizes the intersection between democratic politics and economic goals. It is organized in five sessions around a series of questions, with panellists invited to discuss and debate these questions.

The seminars are hybrid and take place at Dalgas Have 15. All times are CET.

Class schedule

March 17, 15:30-17:00, Dalgas Have 15, Room Ø.0.89

Is Green Capitalism an oxymoron?

Contributors to the 2025 Forum in Development and Change on The Political Economy of Renewables Capitalism (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14677660/2025/56/4-5) will debate three different views on the greening of capitalism. The first is that the development of capitalism historically inextricably linked to fossil fuels and cannot be ‘greened’. The second is that the pursuit of economic, environmental and social justice can only happen if we abandon our obsession with economic growth, regardless of the underlying energy mix. And third, there are opportunities to leverage the green transition for more just and environmentally sustainable capitalist economies.

Participants:

  • Murat Arsel, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam
  • Nikita Sud, University of Oxford
  • Lindsay Whitfield, Copenhagen Business School
  • Moderator: Jacob Hasselbach, Copenhagen Business School

 

April 8, 14:00-15:30, Dalgas Have 15, Room C.0.33

Does the green transition open pathways out of the periphery?

Within the debate on whether the green transition is a ‘just’ transition, one perspective argues that green energy transitions deepen polarization and dependencies between rich and poor countries. In this view the decarbonization of rich economies happens at the cost of deeper social and environmental exploitation in peripheries. The opposite perspective argues that even latecomers could leverage energy transitions by inserting themselves strategically in new energy infrastructures and cleantech value chains. The panelists at this seminar will debate these two perspectives, considering whether the green transition opens windows of opportunity for countries in the global South to be first or fast movers in the new green (or greened) industries. In doing so, it moves beyond asking whether the green transition is ‘just’, to asking whether it can change the hierarchy of productive relations in global capitalism.

Participants:

  • Ilias Alami, University of Cambridge
  • Aldo Madariega, Diego Portales University, Chile
  • Elvis Alvenyo, University of Johannesburg (online)
  • Stine Haakonsson, Copenhagen Business School
  • Moderator: Lindsay Whitfield, Copenhagen Business School

April 16, 14:00 to 15:30, Dalgas Have 15, Room C.0.33

How do we square democratic rights with green industrial policies?

To tackle the climate crisis, a transition from fossil fuels to renewables and the generalization of electrification are scientifically consensual policy options. However, the material needs of renewable energy-based energy systems (eg. solar panels), electromobility and energy storage (eg. batteries) require ever more mining of critical raw materials with severe environmental, social and economic impacts on local communities. Furthermore, the global energy transition is increasingly shaped by geopolitical competition. As strategic rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, securing access to critical raw materials has become a central policy concern. As access to mineral markets tightens, industrial policy has emerged across both mineral-producing and mineral-consuming states as a response to rising uncertainty, risk, and demands for economic sovereignty. The panelists in this seminar debate the tensions and contradictions that are arising over critical raw materials based on their research and different perspectives.

Participants:

 

April 30, 13:00-15:00, Dalgas Have 15, Room Ø.0.89

In conversation with Andreas Malm on The Long Heat: Climate politics when it’s too late

The world is crossing the 1.5°C global warming limit, perhaps exceeding 2°C soon after. What is to be done when these boundaries, set by the Paris Agreement, have been passed? Schemes proliferate for adaptation or for new technologies to turn the heat down at a later date by re­moving CO2 from the air or blocking sunlight. The Long Heat maps the new front lines in the struggle for a liveable planet and insists on the climate revolution long overdue. In the end, no technology can absolve us of responsibility for our planet and each other.

But what will this climate revolution look like? How will it play out across the global North and South? Is there room for a Leftist global democratic movement in the context of the Far-Right’s green backlash? The panelists will discuss these issues after Malm’s presentation of his book The Long Heat.

After Malm’s presentation, there will be a panel discussion with

  • Andreas Malm, University of Lund
  • Stefano Ponte, Copenhagen Business School
  • Isabel Froes, Copenhagen Business School
  • Moderator: Lindsay Whitfield, Copenhagen Business School

 

May 11, 10:00-11:30 (please note the morning time), Dalgas Have 15, Room Ø.0.89

Can developmental environmentalism be democratic?

The challenges of democratic regimes to nudge or coerce economic and political elites who benefit from fossil fuel production systems has revived interests in authoritarian environmentalism as a credible alternative. However, it is not clear that democratic or authoritarian political regimes are the key variable. Coining the term Developmental Environmentalism, scholars of China and South Korea show that the pursuit by governments in these countries to move away from fossil fuels has been driven by a combination of the need to find new growth drivers and be first movers in new technologies with geopolitical issues of dependence on oil imports and political legitimacy problems linked to pollution from fossil fuels. Thus, developmental environmentalism seems to be driven by political legitimacy which defies categorization as democratic or authoritarian. The panelists will debate these issues from the perspective of Europe and Asia.

Participants:

  • Donato di Carlo, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Elizabeth Thurbon, UNSW Sydney (joining online)
  • Cornel Ban, Copenhagen Business School
  • Moderator: Lindsay Whitfield, Copenhagen Business School

EU Enlargement and Transformation in Times of Crisis: Lessons Learned from Pre- and Post-Experiences in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans (ongoing)

Course Directors: Inna Melnykovska, European University Institute and Laszlo Bruszt, CEU Democracy Institute

Preliminary syllabus
Course description:

The European Union’s renewed commitment to enlargement marks a decisive moment in the reconfiguration of Europe’s political order. Triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s decision to advance accession processes with Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans has reopened fundamental scholarly and policy questions: Can enlargement still function as a transformative instrument under conditions of geopolitical rivalries, war and democratic backsliding? How do emergency-driven, ad hoc instruments reshape the Union’s established enlargement logic, and what are the implications for EU internal reforms?

This research seminar invites participants to engage critically with the evolving political economy and governance of EU enlargement. Building comparative insights from previous waves in Central and Eastern Europe and ongoing processes in the Western Balkans, participants will explore how conventional tools – conditionality, benchmarking, acquis adoption – are increasingly complemented or substituted by context-specific mechanisms such as phased integration, reconstruction-linked assistance, and security-oriented pre-accession frameworks.

Key themes include:

The theoretical rethinking of enlargement as a process of mutual transformation between the EU and candidate states;
The interaction between geopolitical pressures, institutional constraints, and normative commitments in shaping enlargement strategies;
The political economy of EU support for wartime and post-war reconstruction in Ukraine;
The interplay between enlargement and internal EU reforms, including decision-making, budgetary solidarity, and rule-of-law mechanisms;
The comparative experiences of the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership countries as laboratories for policy innovation and institutional adaptation.

The seminar emphasizes research design and methodological pluralism. Students will develop and present their own research projects addressing contemporary policy challenges, drawing on both qualitative and quantitative approaches, from process tracing and discourse analysis to network and institutional modeling. Interventions from EU policymakers and practitioners will complement academic discussions, linking theoretical inquiry to real-world governance dilemmas.

Learning outcomes:

By the end of the seminar, participants will have advanced their capacity to formulate original research questions, situate them within broader scholarly debates on European integration, and contribute empirically grounded insights into how enlargement is redefining the EU’s identity, boundaries, and global role in times of crisis.

Learning activities and teaching formats:

The seminar combines thematic lectures, research-focused discussion seminars, and a summer school with policymakers and scholars. This structure allows students to engage with both theoretical debates and applied policy perspectives, encouraging dialogue between academic research and practice.

This course begins with two components: lectures and seminars. Lectures will be given by the course directors, scholars participating in the Enlargement Hub and other invited guest speakers from the EU and Ukraine, who are usually experts or practitioners in the topic of the week. Lectures will be interactive, involving round-table conversations with the guests and discussions with students. The seminars’ main goals will be to discuss the concepts, arguments, follow-up questions, etc. brought up in the lectures and critically reflect on the reading(s) assigned for the week. To facilitate participation, students are requested to cover core English-language readings before seminars. A larger selection of readings is offered, covering topics from the perspectives of political science, political economy, and law.

The course finishes with the summer school taking place at the CEU Democracy Institute in Budapest and online. The summer school will give participants the opportunity to present and receive feedback on their research projects (proposal, chapter or paper) from senior scholars in their fields; as well as improve their methodological, writing, etc. skills.

 

Class schedule

Overview of lectures (preliminary)

  1. March 30, 2026, The Challenges of Studying Ukraine’s EU Integration. Lecturers: Laszlo Bruszt (CEU Democracy Institute);  Ivan Nagornyak (NGO Easybusiness, Ukraine)
  2. April 13, 2026, Agri-Food Sector – Between Market Access and Exclusion. Lecturers: Julia Langbein, Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) (Berlin); Oleg Nivievskyi, Kyiv School of Economics (KSE)
  3. April 20, 2026, Local Developmental Alliances – Territorial Cohesion under Integration. Lecturers: Mihai Varga, Institute of East European Studies, Free University Berlin (Berlin); Oleksandra Keudel, Kyiv School of Economics (KSE)
  4. April 27, 2026, Decarbonization and Defence – Managing Strategic Investment under EU Integration. Lecturers: Luuk Schmitz, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies (MPIfG) (Cologne); Olena Pavlenko, DiXi Group
  5. May 4, 2026, Critical Minerals – Balancing Geopolitics, Industrialization, and Environmental Justice. Lecturers: Ielyzaveta Badanova, European University Institute; David Karas, CEU Democracy Institute (tbc);  Isabella Gourevich, ifo Institute / LMU Munich
  6. May 11, 2026. Judicial Integration and Strategies for Fighting Corruption. Lecturers: Oksana Huss, Ruh University Bochum; Alina Mungiu Pippidi, Professor LUISS; Mihaly Fazekas
  7. May 18, 2026, Development Finance Architecture –Coordinating External and Domestic Actors. Lecturers: Matthias Thiemann, Sciences Po, Centre for European Studies (Paris) /Dora Piroska (CEU) (Vienna); Hlib Vyshlinsky, Center for Economic Strategy
  8. May 25, 2026, Defence- Industrial Upgrading –Military Production as a Technological Accelerator. Lecturers: Ihor Masiakin, CEU Democracy Institute; Fabio Bulfone; Maria Repko, Center for Economic Strategy
  9. June 1, 2026, The Integration of Ukraine and the EU’s Future. Lecturers: Veronica Anghel, European University Institute; Erik Jones, European University Institute

Overview of Seminars (preliminary)

  1. April 23, 2026, Drivers and Obstacles in Europeanization: Contrasting Theoretical Approaches; by Inna Melnykovska, European University Institute
  2. April 28, 2026, Concepts and Concept Building in EU integration and enlargement research; by Inna Melnykovska, European University Institute
  3. May 14, 2026, Grasping EU Effects: Methods and Data; by Inna Melnykovska, European University Institute

Summer School

Planned for July 2026 in a hybrid mode at the CEU Democracy Institute in Budapest. More information to follow.

AI and Big Data for Democracy Research: Methods, Applications, and Impact (planned)

Course Convener: Levente Littvay / Level: Advanced MA / PhD / Researcher Training

Course Summary

This course bridges the gap between foundational political science and the frontier of artificial intelligence, drawing directly from the Global Forum for Democracy and Development’s research on democratic resilience, polarization, and inequality.

Moving beyond standard data science curricula, this course interrogates how AI and big data can be deployed to measure democratic health, preserve at-risk cultural narratives, and quantify political behavior in the Global North and South. The curriculum follows a trajectory from classical approaches (text analysis and frequentist machine learning) to generative AI applications (LLMs for coding and simulation), culminating in industry implementation.

Learning Objectives

  • Methodological Fluency: Distinguish between and apply classical text analysis (dictionaries, scaling) and transformer-based approaches (LLMs) for political inquiry.
  • Applied ML for Social Science: Understand the “Prediction vs. Inference” trade-off and apply supervised learning to estimate political outcomes.
  • Digital Preservation: Utilize digital humanities frameworks to archive and analyze under-resourced or suppressed political narratives.
  • Elite & Mass Behavior Modeling: Deploy LLMs to scale qualitative coding of populism and nationalism, democratic attitudes, and measure elite polarization.
  • Translational Research: Analyze pathways for converting academic innovations (e.g., social welfare algorithms) into private sector applications.

Strategic Rationale

This course structure offers a logical progression:

  1. Weeks 1-2 ground students in the scientific method (reproducibility, validation) using traditional tools.
  2. Week 3 introduces the technological disruption (LLMs) that challenges those traditional tools.
  3. Weeks 4-5 demonstrate domain-specific applications (Humanities and Political Behavior), showing how the new tools solve old problems (scaling qualitative data).
  4. Week 6 provides the career/impact trajectory, showing the dual-use nature of these technologies in the public and private sectors.

 

Class schedule

Week 1: Introduction to the Analysis of Texts and Big Data

Instructor: Bruno Castanho Silva (Brazil – Freie Universität Berlin)

  • Focus: The foundational “classical” toolkit for quantitative text analysis in political science. This session establishes the baseline against which modern AI methods are compared.
  • Core Concepts:
    • Preprocessing Pipelines: Tokenization, stop-word removal, and stemming in R.
    • Dictionary Methods: Sentiment analysis and the construction of domain-specific lexicons.
    • Scaling Methods: Wordfish and Wordscores for estimating policy positions from manifestos.
    • Topic Modeling: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Structural Topic Models (STM) to identify latent political discourse.
  • Application: Replicating populist rhetoric detection using bag-of-words approaches.

 

Week 2: Introduction to Machine Learning for Social Research

Instructor: Ekoutiame Jules Ahlin (Togo –  Universität Berlin)

  • Focus: A rigorous introduction to classical machine learning (non-generative), emphasizing the epistemological shift from inference (explaining relationships) to prediction (estimating outcomes).
  • Core Concepts:
    • Supervised Learning: Classification (Logistic Regression, SVMs, Random Forests) vs. Regression tasks.
    • Unsupervised Learning: Clustering (K-means, Hierarchical) and Dimensionality Reduction (PCA) for finding structure in voting data.
    • Model Evaluation: Cross-validation, precision-recall trade-offs, and avoiding overfitting in small-N political datasets.
  • Application: Predicting regime types using training data from the Global South.

 

Week 3: Large Language Models and Synthetic Respondents

Instructor: Levente Littvay (Hungary – ELTE Centre for Social Sciences, Budapest)

  • Focus: The paradigm shift from statistical learning to neural networks and Transformers. This session addresses both the utility of LLMs in research and the existential validity threats they pose.
  • Core Concepts:
    • Transformer Architecture: From BERT to GPT—understanding attention mechanisms without the math-heavy overhead.
    • Prompt Engineering vs. Fine-tuning: Strategies for extracting valid data from models.
    • Chats and APIs: Understanding the formats through which one can communicate with these models.
  • Application: Text and Image generation for survey experimental research.

 

Week 4: Digital Humanities for Cultural Preservation

Instructors: Jean-Thomas Martelli (France – Politics and South Asian Studies at Seoul University) and Jessie Labov (US – Corvinus University)

  • Focus: Using computational methods to archive and analyze cultural heritage and political history, with a focus on non-Western and suppressed voices.
  • Core Concepts:
    • Martelli’s Approach: “Geek mixed methods”—combining digital ethnography with computational text analysis. Case study on Indian youth politics and the visual/textual archiving of Indian political speeches.
    • Labov’s Approach: Archiving the ephemeral. Text mining literary journals and Samizdat (dissident) publications. Network analysis of transnational intellectual flows.
    • Preservation Algorithms: Optical Character Recognition (OCR) for low-resource languages and messy historical documents.
  • Application: Visualizing the “republic of letters” in dissident networks or mapping populist rhetoric in Indian digital spaces.

 

Week 5: Applications of AI Models in Democracy Research

Instructors: Yujin Jung (Korea – Mount St. Mary’s University) and Gennadii Iakovlev (Russia – Centre for Social Sciences, Budapest, )

  • Focus: State-of-the-art applications of LLMs to solve specific measurement problems in democratic attitude research and elite behavior.
  • Core Concepts:
    • Qualitative Coding at Scale (Jung): Moving beyond manual coding. 1. Using LLMs to code open-ended survey responses. Validating AI codes against human inter-coder reliability. 2. The use of LLMs for qualitative coding of populism and nationalism in political speeches.
    • Measuring Polarization (Iakovlev): 1. A novel approach to Elite Polarization. Using LLMs to detect “actor-subject” sentiment in parliamentary speeches—identifying not just what is said, but the emotional temperature between specific political rivals. 2. Analysis of regime strategies for NGO funding using LLMs.
  • Application: Comparing human-coded vs. LLM-coded political sentiment data.

 

Week 6: From Foundational Research to Business Applications

Instructors: Erdem Yoruk (Turkey – Koç University) and Eduardo Ryo Tamaki (Brazil – GIGA Hamburg)

  • Focus: The translation of academic political science into industry tools. How methods developed for understanding social welfare and populism are adapted for market intelligence and risk analysis.
  • Core Concepts:
    • The Politus Trajectory (Yoruk): Case study of the “Emerging Welfare” project evolving into Politus and Enlighty.ai. How emotion-detection algorithms used for protest analysis are repurposed for brand health and consumer sentiment.
    • Populism as Risk Metric (Tamaki): Applying the measurement of populist discourse (Team Populism methodologies) to private sector political risk analysis. Understanding how political instability impacts market behaviors
    • Predicting Public Opinion (Yoruk and Tamaki): The business applications of LLM simulated public opinion.

Discussion: The ethics of commercializing social science data and the feedback loop between industry tools and academic research.